From Spirals to Bunkers

Among the vast troves of scientific data and analysis threatened with deletion or exclusion by those who prefer to live in a fantasy world, we single out the below animation created by Jay Alder of the U.S, Geological survey, with its accompanying caption:

ccsm4_rcp85_global_temperature_change_spiral

This animated spiral portrays the simulated changes in the global averaged monthly air temperature from 1850 through 2100 relative to the 1850 – 1900 average. The temperature data are from Community Climate System (CCSM4) global climate model maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The simulation is for the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. RCP8.5 is the most aggressive scenario in which green house gases continue to rise unchecked through the end of the century, leading to an equivalent of about 1370 ppm CO2, which is roughly four times the concentration at present. The CCSM4 simulation is part of the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP5) and the data can be downloaded at https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/. The 21st century animations are an extension of the graphic (http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2016/spiralling-global-temperatures/) for the 1850-2010 observed air temperature created by E. Hawkins at Reading University, UK.

˜˜˜˜˜

We are indebted to a DP correspondent for steering us to a second graphic death spiral, depicting changes in arctic sea ice volume:

piomas

˜˜˜˜˜

And from our friends at Arctic News, we receive the following updated projection and analysis:

temps

“Above forecast for February 6, 2017, shows that temperatures over parts of the Arctic Ocean will be as much as 30°C or 54°F higher than they were in 1979-2000. How can it be so much warmer in a place where, at this time of year, little or no sunlight is shining? The Arctic Ocean is warming particularly rapidly due to a multitude of feedbacks, some of which are illustrated on the image below.”

feedbacks

˜˜˜˜˜

Feedback loops are accelerating, leaving very little wriggle room for alternative facts. At some point, the feedback spiral turns into a target for a species that will not be able to escape.

jjtarget

JASPER JOHNS, TARGET, 1974

˜˜˜˜˜

Finally, we note that building bunkers in faraway places has become fashionable among the “Future Forward” billionaires who would rather cut and run then face the implications of their various hubristic fantasies.

Former Reddit CEO Yishan Wong comments, “The tech preppers do not necessarily think a collapse is likely.They consider it a remote event, but one with a very severe downside, so, given how much money they have, spending a fraction of their net worth to hedge against this is a logical thing to do.” Oh my, how far the mighty shall fall….

HOW FAR DOWN DO WE HAVE TO GO?

HOW FAR, THE DOWNSIDE?


Comments are disabled.